Local experts share real estate forecast

By Emma Dill and Cece Nunn, posted Jan 14, 2026 on wilmingtonbiz.com

Brittany Allen sees more than one reason to be optimistic about residential real estate in the Wilmington area in 2026.

Allen, 2025 president of Cape Fear Realtors, said in December that the area’s residential real estate market “really remains foundationally solid.”

She added, “Mortgage delinquencies are at historic lows, and we also have many homeowners here in our area who are sitting on substantial equity they’ve achieved in the past several years. We’re seeing job growth remain steady in our area and all that is indicative of a really good 2026.”

Home prices could rise nationwide. The National Association of Realtors predicts a 4% increase this year, with no price declines nationally or locally, Allen said.

At the same time, she said, “Sellers right now do tend to be a little more understanding of the importance of pricing properties correctly to achieve their goal of getting it sold.”

Broker and appraiser Tori Humphrey, the 2025 president of the Brunswick County Association of Realtors, shared what she’s been seeing that could inform the state of the market in 2026.

“My best educated guess is that Baby Boomers are still retiring, and a large portion of that group – maybe 70% – are aiming for the beach or the golf course, while their spouse is heading to the beach too (lol),” Humphrey wrote in an email. “At the same time, we’re still seeing a lot of movement from the younger generations. They’ve found ways to stay in the area thanks to jobs that simply didn’t exist here 30 years ago. The point being: younger Brunswick County natives are staying, buying homes, and putting down roots.

“From the appraisal side, I’m seeing younger buyers in the new construction communities, along with new homes going up in areas that have traditionally been retirees’ favorites.”

New communities are on the rise, including The Sterling, a 265-unit complex under construction off Military Cutoff and Eastwood roads as part of mixed-use development Center Point.

Residential and commercial developments are responding to growth.

“We expect the next year or two to look a lot like what we’re seeing today,” said Jason Swain, of Wilmington-based Swain & Associates, one of the developers of Center Point, along with Charleston, South Carolina-based The Beach Company. “Wilmington should continue to grow, and because most of the land within the city limits is developed, we’ll continue to see more redevelopment of existing properties. At the same time, much new growth will likely occur on the periphery of the city, … With interest rates falling, we expect some projects that have been on hold to start moving forward as development fundamentals stabilize and expectations adjust to new market norms.”

Brian Eckel, of Wilmington-based Cape Fear Development and Cape Fear Commercial, said he thinks Class A multifamily development will continue this year, “but it won’t feel like the same sprint. Wilmington is facing a meaningful wave of new supply, and you can already see the market leaning on concessions to maintain velocity, even with stabilized occupancy still generally in the mid-90% range.”

He said with around 1,800 units in the pipeline that are expected to be delivered from early 2026 through mid-2027, “the area is likely to feel overbuilt at times, which should temper rent growth and cause some proposed projects to reprice, phase or push their start dates.”

Commercial real estate trends

Wilmington’s investment market is poised for a “comeback year” in 2026, according to Lindsey Hess, a senior vice president at Wilmington-based commercial real estate firm Cape Fear Commercial.

The rebound began in 2025 amid a drop in borrowing costs and increased capital flows, Hess said. That renewed investor activity followed a pause stemming from a spike in interest rates post-pandemic.

In 2025, the national office market also began recovering from pandemic-era impacts. That rebound has trickled into tertiary markets like Wilmington, Hess said. However, Wilmington is somewhat of an outlier because the market, historically, hasn’t had large amounts of office inventory because of a lack of speculative building, keeping vacancy rates low.

Hess said she expects the Mayfaire and downtown submarkets to see strong and continued demand in 2026, along with demand in midtown Wilmington, an area primarily comprised of medical office space.

Following the post-pandemic spike in interest rates, Hess said, Wilmington’s commercial market saw a price correction, but she expects to see prices tick upwards in 2026.

Steve Hall, vice president of Wilmington-based commercial real estate firm BlueCoast Commercial, said in 2025 he saw an increase in commercial development – retail in particular – in growing parts of the Cape Fear region, including Hampstead, Rocky Point and Brunswick County.

Those commercial projects are aimed at accommodating recent residential growth and development, Hall said, bringing goods and services to the region’s climbing population.

Swain said the retail component of Center Point is officially underway.

“The first phase includes approximately 32,166 square feet of retail and restaurant space and is fully committed. The response has been extremely strong – so strong, in fact, that demand has exceeded available space – and we’re now underway with the design of our Phase II retail. Plans are also in place to move forward with our office component, including relocating our own offices to the project.”

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